COVID-19 Trajectories monitoring

In the past 7 days, China had insignificant growth in new cases; Italy, the worst hit european country, has a single-digit growth rate. The US has being growing at +20% in the prevous week.

What can we learn from this?

  • Most countries have a “counterclockwise” movement, where initially there is a high growth rate in the cases; in a second moment the growth rate of cases is constant while the growth rate of deaths increases. Finally, both growth rates tend to decrease once the governments have imposed some kind of control to the spread.
  • The growth rate of cases ussually decreases much faster than the growth rate of deaths. To see my point, take a look at the same animation, where I have highlighted 3 countries of Asia.
  • The lockdown measures work. See the same animation for Italy and Spain, the worst-hit european countries that have imposed very restricted measures of social-distancing in days 69 and 74 respectively
  • As the year progresses, we can see how the countries in different continents have progressed through the phases described earlier. February saw high rates of change in Asia and some countries in Europe. The first weeks of March saw the same period for many other counries in Europe and the US and Australia. As we come close to the end of March, most countries in Asia are achieving low growth rates in cases and deaths; at the same time more countries in Africa, North and South America are entering the phase of accelerated growth. See this side by side animation to watch the trend:
Situation as of March 26th

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Data and analytics expert, driven by curiosity and fueled by a hacker’s mentality. MSc Business Analytics from Alliance Manchester Business School.

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Juan Felipe Alvarez Jaramillo

Juan Felipe Alvarez Jaramillo

Data and analytics expert, driven by curiosity and fueled by a hacker’s mentality. MSc Business Analytics from Alliance Manchester Business School.

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